罗钦,李伟,苏博艺,唐涛

• 1:深圳技术大学城市交通与物流学院
• 2:深圳技术大学深圳市城市轨道交通重点实验室
• 3:北京交通大学先进轨道交通自主运行全国重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

列车故障是城市轨道交通异常事件的常见诱因，其引发的干扰通常具有明显的不确定性特征，增加运行图调整难度。针对这一问题，将运行图调整划分为两个决策阶段：第一阶段提取与不确定性干扰无关的决策变量，包括故障处置期间的扣车、中途折返及备车调用决策；第二阶段针对每种具体干扰情形，对运行图中的其余决策变量进行优化。在此基础上，分别设置两个阶段的约束条件，并考虑列车调度员的保守决策态度以及预测概率分布与真实分布之间可能存在的偏差，采用最不利概率分布下的均值-条件风险价值准则刻画不确定性干扰的负面影响，构建风险规避式两阶段分布鲁棒优化模型。基于线性化方法和对偶理论，将上述模型转化为混合整数线性规划形式，采用融合整数L型法和神经网络加速技术的求解方法，实现模型的快速求解。基于北京地铁亦庄线设计多组仿真算例，验证所提方法的有效性。结果表明，所提方法始终能在1 min左右输出高质量解，平均最优间隙仅为0.45%,且在预测概率分布存在偏差时能够提升方案的鲁棒性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 城市轨道交通;列车故障;运行图调整;不确定性干扰;分布鲁棒优化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(52472326);; 深圳市城市轨道交通重点实验室(SYSPG20241211173843002);; 深圳市科技资助计划(JCYJ20250604145207009)

作者(Author): 罗钦,李伟,苏博艺,唐涛

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